19 States Have Shifted to Donald Trump in Past Week—Nate Silver Model

Former President Donald Trump has made gains in 19 states in the past week, according to a major election forecast.
Pollster Nate Silver’s forecast shows that the Republican presidential nominee has made marginal gains in six swing states during the past week and in Florida, Texas and New Mexico.
Trump has also made gains in New Hampshire, California, Montana, Washington, Massachusetts, Indiana, Missouri, Maryland, Rhode Island and Nebraska, including in its 2nd Congressional District.
Nebraska does not use the “winner takes all” system for awarding Electoral College votes. Two votes are awarded to the winner of the statewide popular vote, and one vote is awarded to the winner in each of Nebraska’s three congressional districts.
The former president’s largest gain was in Florida, where he picked up 1.8 points in the past week. He now leads Harris by 5.2 points in the state.
In Nebraska, Maryland and California, he increased his vote share by 1.6 points, 1.1 points and 1.3 points, respectively. Nebraska is a solidly Republican state, while Maryland and California are Democratic strongholds. In all the other non-battleground states, the former president has made marginal gains of less than 1 point.
The former president has also made marginal gains in every swing state other than Georgia, where he is in the lead. His biggest gain was in Michigan, where his vote share increased by 0.9 points. Harris is leading in Michigan, which Biden flipped in 2020, by 1.1 points, according to Silver’s forecast.
In Wisconsin, Trump gained 0.8 points, and Harris leads by 1.2 points. In the other swing states that Harris leads, Nevada and Pennsylvania, Trump has gained 0.4 and 0.3 points, respectively.
Trump’s gains in the states he leads, Arizona and North Carolina, were even more marginal, at 0.1 and 0.2 points, respectively. In Georgia, Harris gained 0.3 points, brining her vote share up to 47.8 percent to Trump’s 48.5 percent.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
The forecast comes amid a positive week for Trump in the polls.
The most recent ActiVote poll, conducted October 3 to 8, showed Trump was in the lead nationally by 1.2 points. In ActiVote’s poll from September, Harris led Trump by 5.4 points. Both polls surveyed 1,000 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The October survey was the first national poll to give Trump a lead since September 22.
Polls in some of the swing states have also looked positive for Trump, with RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker showing that Michigan has flipped in favor of Trump for the first time since July 29, with the former president half a point ahead in the state.
It followed newly released polling from Quinnipiac University that showed Trump was 4 points ahead in Michigan in a head-to-head matchup and 3 points ahead with third-party candidates included. It also showed that Trump was ahead by 2 points in Wisconsin. Harris has led both states since the end of July, according to 538.
The Quinnipiac University poll put Harris 2 points ahead in Pennsylvania in a head-to-head matchup and 3 points ahead when third-party candidates were included. It surveyed 1,007 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
In Quinnipiac University’s September 18 poll, Harris held a lead in Pennsylvania and a slight lead in Michigan, and the race was essentially tied in Wisconsin.
“That was then, this is now. The Harris post-debate starburst dims to a glow as Harris enters the last weeks slipping slightly in the Rust Belt,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a news release.
Polling, including the latest Emerson College survey, shows Trump ahead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. According to Nate Silver’s and 538’s poll trackers, the former president is between 1 and 2 points ahead in each state.
While the gap between Harris and Trump may be getting smaller in the polls, some surveys suggest the Harris campaign is still gaining traction, with less than a month to go until the election.
The latest Cygnal poll, conducted October 2 to 3, showed Harris leading Trump by 3.3 points, 50.3 percent to his 47 percent. That was up from an August 7 poll—which showed the vice president with a 0.6-point lead over Trump, 47.6 percent to his 47 percent—and a September 5 poll, which showed she was 2.1 points ahead, with 49 percent of the vote to Trump’s 46.9 percent.
Another poll, conducted by Morning Consult on October 4 to 6, put Harris 6 points ahead after previous surveys showed her lead was between 2 and 5 points.
According to 538’s poll tracker, Harris holds a 2.4-point national lead over Trump. In Silver’s tracker, she is 3 points ahead.
Nonetheless, Harris’ chances depend on winning swing states, which polling shows are either candidate’s to win.
Harris needs 44 electoral votes from toss-up states to secure victory, while Trump needs 51. If Harris won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd District, she would reach the electoral threshold required to win.
According to 538’s forecast, Harris will win in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska’s 2nd District with 278 votes, which would give her enough votes to take her over the line. The pollster predicts Trump will win in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him 260 votes overall.
RealClearPolitics’ forecast shows that, with no toss-up states, Harris will win in Nevada, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd District, while Trump will win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him an overall win of 296 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 242.